MARYSVILLE Its not just a gimme any more.
That was local realtor Steve Campbell giving his take on the cooling real estate market in north Snohomish County.
He is standing outside a new house built in unincorporated county land near Shoultes Elementary School that has had a for sale sign standing much longer than he would like.
We have to work hard, selling times are longer, agents are having to work harder, Campbell rued. Its absolutely slowed down.
As the for sale signs are up longer, properties are on the market longer and there are no multiple offers. But the Puget Sound market is the most stable in the county right now and with Boeing and Microsoft reporting strong sales, nobody is expecting prices to drop.
For most realtors who have been in the business for a while, this is a return to normality. National problems are linked to a collapse of the sub-prime loan business and some lenders are pulling back, reducing the amount they will lend to first-time buyers.
But Puget Sound is supported by a strong employment base, with record-low unemployment numbers for the entire state. And Snohomish County will continue to be the choice for affordable housing as urban areas in King and Piece counties are built up and potential owners are priced out, experts say.
People just arent able to get the same loan packages they could have a year ago, or even six months ago, explained Aaron Metcalf.
He is the president of Belmark Homes, a Marysville developer who builds mostly single-family homes. His firm has a major project in town off of 83rd and new projects are winding down, although Metcalf said a couple of his larger projects were delayed for other reasons and not the market. He said the Federal Reserve Bank has helped things some by reducing the short-term rate, but predicts more action will be needed to steady the national market.
Employment at his firm is steady, but when projects are delayed or deferred people further down the food chain are affected.
If we dont start a home, that plumber, that electrician doesnt have any work, Metcalf said. Every bodys nervous about the market.
For some people, the change is a good thing. Arlington escrow agent Norman Jean Syrie said during the boom times she saw many purchase agreements that had escalation clauses in them, meaning the prices were rising faster than the ink could dry.
I dont think those things are happening now, Syrie said.
The past few years the market was abnormal, according to Syrie, who has owned Olympic Escrow for seven years after selling real estate in Marysville during the 80s and 90s.
Its slowed down but the last five or six years have been surreal, Syrie said. Its gone back to being normal. Its still steady, its still good.
Realty and reality are simply getting reacquainted with each other again, according to Gene Bryson, owner and broker at the Windermere Arlington office. Appreciation is now at
4 percent, versus the 20 percent that was common a couple of years ago. That simply wasnt sustainable over the long-term and many sellers had very unrealistic expectations to begin with, Bryson added.
I think a lot of it was that sellers were extrapolating the huge price increases that we had in 2005, for example, without considering that this couldnt go on forever, Bryson said.
He took care to examine the business closely; sifting the statistics to get an accurate estimate of the markets health. Bryson said he would discard the anomalies such as a
$3 million mansion or a $40,000 mobile home when he analyzed the sales figures, and other people might have paid closer attention to things like that. Theres no more multiple offers, and properties are sitting longer than they used to, but thats OK, according to Bryson.
Theres no question theres a lot more inventory on the market, Bryson said. When theres more inventory theres more pressure to price things appropriately. We are still getting qualified buyers wanting to invest in the area.
The Master Builders Association is a state-wide group representing developers and contractors. Mike Pattison covers Snohomish County for the group and he echoed comments from city planning people that permitting activity is down, compared to past years. But people are still working, having babies, and moving in to the area, and most importantly the region is still creating jobs. Before the downturn the market had about a one-month supply; now its at five to six months.
Theres a lot of unease in the market and amongst those that are in real estate for a living, Pattison said. I think its important to note that where we are now is normal.
According to the Snohomish County Camano Association of Realtors, the standard supply is have on hand is about eight months of inventory, so even as the market has slowed, its much healthier than many people realize, said spokeswoman Cameron Fay. She said appreciation has dropped from 18 percent to eight or nine, and thats still good.
Its still going up, its just going up slower, Fay said. Its still a healthy market.